In the month of November 2010 Washington would have already firmly decided that the JLP Government as constituted then was more than a nagging fly-in-the-ointment.
Ironically, as strained as the relationship has been between Washington and Caracas, it is more than likely that President Hugo Chavez, the most eager regionalist of our time, would have found reason to share a common objective with the US diplomats in Jamaica at just about the same time.
A Jamaican leader(Golding) had pledged to place his political future at risk by loudly standing out on a limb for a man wanted in the USA for drug and gun running and being a dangerous underworld boss - 'Dudus'.
At that stage the Americans would have singled out Dr Peter Phillips, the security minister in the PNP Government of 2004 and the point man in Jamaica whose actions led to the ultimate extradition as a man they could do business with in the near future.
On the Friday after the December 29 election there would be more than an element of 'mission accomplished' in the objectives of the Americans and President Chavez.
Golding had been slamming Chavez, an ally of the PNP, while in Opposition. The JLP Government formed after September 2007 was without ideology and a philosophy guiding its governance and grudgingly accepted the benefits of the PetroCaribe Fund only because it had no other choice.
It would indeed surprise me if the interventionist side of the regionalist President Chavez did not tangibly assist its ally, the PNP, in the last few weeks during the election. There exists no evidence that I am aware of that supports the view that a foreign government pumped significant cash into the coffers of the PNP. What is without doubt, however, is that contrary to conventional wisdom, the PNP was a cash-rich party in the last week of campaigning.
It is a slight reversal of 2007 when the JLP was overloaded with cash and the PNP was relatively broke. I use the word 'slight' because the JLP was not broke in 2011, only that the PNP became much richer than the JLP at the politically perfect time.
Many PNP supporters who I spoke with recently indicated a willingness to give the PNP a somewhat extended honeymoon to get the social and economic picture right. It is not, however, a mood that can be plotted on a straight-line graph.
The closeness of the election of 2007 had never indicated a rejection of the PNP, its policies or the style and mechanics of its governance. PNP supporters have accepted the JLP's four-year run as a minor blip on the political radar and firmly believe that a new PNP Government will 'get it right'.
"Even if di JEEP nuh run right away, wi know sey it a go work fi poor people," said a young woman to me recently.
Her young male friend, unemployed as she was said, "Money dey yah and as soon as Portia settle off, di JEEP a go start up."
Gay Lobby will wait in vain
I have yet to meet one PNP supporter who earnestly believes that the Buggery Law will be changed.
During the leadership debate, then Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller had indicated that a PNP Government led by her would review the law. The JLP had then pounced on it in an effort to gain political mileage - standard politics - by making it seem as if Simpson Miller had promised a change in the law.
"Do you believe that the PNP will review the Buggery Law?" I asked a group of young men, all unemployed and who admitted that they had voted for the PNP.
"Yeah," one said. "Review it yes, but a nuh nutten dat."
A youngster nearby took off on his friend's mood and said, "As long as she tek up di paper an put it back dung. Dat caan pass a Jamaica. It wi bun dung."
Another less vocal young man said, "A political talk dat. Maybe di man dem donate some money to di PNP party and it jus gi a talk. A politics and it nah guh no wey."
What is very obvious to me is that only Portia Simpson Miller could have made such a promise in so sensitive an area without the political backlash. Additionally, many voters accept that "a so di ting set", meaning that they accept that politicians will spout nonsense. In the case of Simpson Miller, voters were prepared to slot it in the 'not of importance' segment in the days leading up to the vote.
JLP waiting to roll over and die
A few days after the election I was in the company of a young woman and an official of G2K.
The young woman was a recent graduate of. UTech and was planning on going off to the US to study computer and film animation. Her father was a degreed teacher and her mother operated a small business.
She was discussing the G2K ads. "Those ads - they would have appealed to me, to mommy, to daddy, but, we don't vote." The G2K official seemed to sink deeper in the chair.
He just sat there, forced a smile and said nothing. The young woman was right. Assuming that a political party knows the landscape it is operating in, one would expect that the entity would have arrived at its a campaign after considerable research. If knowledge is presumed before research and the ads are made, the only conclusion that could be drawn is that those involved have been very close to our people at all levels. Or that they are stupid.
Now, fully recognising that constituency canvases (which have proven fairly accurate over the years) were either concocted because money paid for them did not reach down to those who were closest to the community or, poorly done because of the weakness of the JLP secretariat, many in the JLP have concluded that the wrong 'election ready' message was given to Andrew Holness.
Demoralised, angry with each other and already reaching for the long knives of 'intra blame' the JLP must face the fact that it is on the verge of a total wipeout at the local government elections.
In the red by anywhere between $40 million and $70 million, the party is lying in the middle of the road waiting on a truck to run it over.
observemark@gmail.com
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