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Friday, November 11, 2016

BREXIT & LGBTQ Asylum concerns part 2: the Trumpage ........




In part one I looked at the ongoing BREXIT concerns and the outcomes from the United Kingdom’s referendum on leaving the European Union and pending referenda in Scotland to leave the United Kingdom, Ireland’s concerns about border protection and subservience to the English parliament. Business interests in both the EU and elsewhere are worried for tariffs, trade deals and future movement of investments. The immigration matters as well are of concern under an EU Schengen visa system effectively giving free movement to nationals in participating states; that may come to an end if and when ‘Article 50’ the parliamentary instrument must be enacted to start the BREXIT process. Right wingers backlash to refugees and or foreigners is alive and well for misplaced cultural fears and job availability, outside of the rowdy behaviour of some groups, namely the recent “jungle” camp in France which was destroyed by French authorities and rerouting said populations to other parts of the country even as the UK are hesitant to take persons who flow over or come by hiding in the under carriages of planes and lorries. The French have their fair share of ring wing advancement and some speculate that Francois Aunard may not win in the upcoming elections.

also see: Homophobic attacks in UK rose 147% in three months after Brexit vote




Gleaner's Lasmay took a shot at it and got it right
US EXITeering?

Said persons do not want to stay in France but will and are willing to risk life and limb to such extremes as walking the entire length of the underground tunnel from France to the UK as they see the UK a better option. A trend that has been on the rise prior to the present UK Prime Minister’s Theresa May’s tenure, the more open resistance by right wingers and pass round donkey games by some states, namely Greece lest we forget; let us also not forget Germany in last year was LGBT asylum applications and indeed others have been met with pressure from the UK’s Home Office this while some fees have increased by some 300% in some instances; that of paper applications with or without a solicitor, Prime Minister May’s expression of interest of reducing overall immigration numbers by half from some 300,000 to150,000 is a clear indication where she intends to go.

Similar postures from Holland of all places have not gone unnoticed, a recent court case in that country of a far right representative blasting Cameroonians in large numbers and they and other non white foreigners need to be reduced shows the emboldened change some have who are no longer prepared to stay in the shadows. Now that Trump has won the strangest US elections yet on anti immigration rhetoric especially to Mexicans while not defining his concern in any strident way to illegal immigrants, complete with clan support officially. He is seen as an outsider which further complicates matters, there may be a civil war inside the Republican party, will Trump come from the far right to centre left or so is yet to be seen, politics in America has been shaken and parallels can be drawn in Europe with other dynamic on the continent with a menacing China smoothing over Africa. While the Russians have been doing all they can to undermine American democracy. Isn’t it also ironic that November 9 in Germany was when that state removed the blockages for refugees?

Some of the antigay groups and pastors try to present some balance mostly hypocritically by infusing some conflict of interest in their arguments even as they celebrate Trump’s win, they claim his business interests may cloud his presidency in terms of his announced handing over of his Trump businesses to a blind trust and to his children to run, they ignore however that the law in the US says that such release of possible conflicts of interest with public officials must be done by way of said businesses by operated by some independent committee or management devoid of direct intervention by the absentee owner or management. I am not surprised said pious individuals see what they want to see as long as it suits their interests.

oh really!

Unapologetic nationalism or manifest destiny?

The President elect does not recognise climate change; he is hesitant on trade deals and is looking inwards that with foreign policy. He dismisses the claim by environmentalists as alarmists, climate sceptics indeed. The Paris climate agreement and decades of legislation are in his sights for removal or severe amendments. He can start the process for now but countries cannot simply leave the protocols and agreements’, bearing in mind the main goal is to reduce green house gas emissions. He says it is ‘global warming BS’ the commitment of the countries may waiver as they were buoyed by the US leading in the charge getting the cooperation of other states, the entire agreement could fall apart. It was one of the areas with the US and China after locking horns arrived at some middle ground. Trump is also a pro-coal supporter despite China’s near about face and increasing solar energy thrust to address the pollution and smog poor air quality challenging there.

Trump might have a Republican congress to back him in certain respects but his agenda and their agenda might not be the same, it is hard to read him in terms of foreign policy, his threat to remove Obama care although that maybe really difficult, his position on pro choice and if he had changed his stance given the evangelical support and LGBTQ issues in the face of his parading of a rainbow flag at one of his stops in the campaign. Executive orders and vetoes may become the order of the day. The uncertainty troubles me much as he is unpredictable and seems to position himself as the situation requires and what of the strangeness of the Caucasian gay male support as well despite the uncertainty, who is really a Trump voter? Racists, poorer whites and Puerto Ricans moving from their island to Miami, the fundamental question in my mind; anyone can publicly find Trump’s revolting rhetoric and then in the voting booth give him the chance, despite polls, despite some media propping. Anti immigration pundits contributed greatly to Trump’s campaign as well; some locals are worried about the H2B visa work program as well, in the face of recent automation news with a patent gained on apple picking technology with harvesting rates of 1 apple per 4 seconds. Despite the fact that Americans are not interested in those types of jobs and immigrants are eager to take them, alongside nursing home care-giving ones a deceptive narrative has resurfaced to suggest said immigrants (legal or not) are ‘taking’ those jobs from Americans.

Demagogic populism has trumped sensible thinking it seems. He claimed he wants to drain the slop in Washington but he’ll have to walk through towards getting into office. A “rigged” system has got him in; wow how bizarre is that, America is seen as joke in some circles now. Trump now finds himself facing Obama after blasting him as unfit and questioning his ethnicity indeed immigration status history and citizenship but now he has to meet with elder statesman in part of the 70 days of transition to the Oval office. He has to reorder his foreign policy points during the hustings at the stomp, his recalibrations on South Korea for example are telling of uncertainty concerns. Fixed grins and diplomatic optics I suppose. The ‘Forgotten man’ reference by Trump is an old Franklyn D Roosevelt position he held, Trump says he is going to bring back jobs.

A right wing leader of Hungary has endorsed Mr Trump claiming it is time to smash misguided liberalism in his mind. The news of the Canadian immigration website crashing due to huge traffic volumes, persons seem to be exploring options to relocate and job opportunities. He flips flops literally saying or tweeting something in the morning and changing his position hours later. These uncertainties are an existential threat to small island developing states such as Jamaica. The violent anti Trump protests while highlighting the displeasure factor also seems to show up the amazing ignorance of some Americans of their own political systems and the Electoral College selection of Presidents. A popular vote does not put such presidents in the office; burning effigies of the man is one thing but did the but one can spend better time by applying pressure to the local representatives and individual state legislators so as to keep some checks and balances on Trump’s presidency and policy direction.

Some questions:

What will America’s policy on refugees and asylum seeking look like under a Trump administration; especially given the early HIV years under President Reagan and his refusal to even acknowledge the matter but siding with conservatives even more so and justifying no gays rights by stigmatized medicalizations; other under President Bush(es) there was some reticence despite USAID work to address these issues and hesitancy on asylum for homophobic victims who find it an uphill task to have their cases heard let alone win them, will there be a review of those cases that have been granted prior, will the old HIV travel ban in the late nineties or banning of donation of blood from gay men become a template for reducing asylum opportunities, will grant aid drop in a view to save money and as Trump puts develop America and create new jobs. Will Trump change Obama’s PEPFAR arrangements as well?

As Trump has threatened to bomb iSIS and other military might although at the risk of sounding ominous what should happen if he goes to war to appease his base and project strength, what will happen to successful asylum seekers, especially LGBTQ individuals, will they be forced into constriction with very little federal benefits or residency rewards, similar to what happened with Jamaicans who went to England in the second world war who joined the royal air force and allowed to apply for citizenship; or will non compliant or volunteering asylum persons be forced out by way of case reviews and examination of case files as to the status of their countries of origin, As I always said asylum status is not a guarantee to citizenship in the United States. Persons should not get complacent.

As for that acceptance speech is nice sounding and rather aspirational but despite his calmer cadence of speech obviously prepped before delivery he thrives on showmanship promoting supposed unity. I am not fooled by it as it was the divide and rule construct he used so tendentiously, as the narrative to gain support then in the speech offering an olive branch of some kind makes good for optics and smooth transitioning of power, Obama’s statesman like speech is welcoming, at least he understands the ground game and doing everything to protect his legacy.

I am still in shock that a political neophyte known as the ‘Donald’ could come to power, this was not how this election was to end even as labelled Hispanics as ‘hombre’ while playing on the dissatisfactions on certain classes “Make America great again” despite the misogyny, is democracy all but dead here now when anyone can become the leader of the free world. But John F Kennedy warned about this prior to his murder, he effectively said every President needs a lull period to adjust and settle as many of what was promised on the campaign may not be deliverable. So I conclude instead of the motto credo ‘God Bless America’ it might be read in the future as ‘God SAVE America’ instead.

one of the memes floating aound during the campaign 

There is a cultural diversity that cannot be ignored anymore, the days of the privileged Caucasian with political power are all but dead as the ‘browning’ of the US by way or Latinos, African immigrants and such is unmistakable, they will make the majority in the long run; this round seems to be a last ditch effort to hold fast to ‘white power’

patronising suppport for LGBT to get votes?

Trump cannot be trusted.

Washington may change Trump or Trump may Trump Washington is yet to be seen, he may not able to ‘drain the swamp’ which is a far cry from running a private business versus governing within boundaries and Capital Hill runnings. The presidency seems to be moving to a ceremonial one than an office with on individual with raw power, said President is constrained in certain respects. Do not loose sight of the fact that Hillary Clinton got the popular vote to the tune of some 200,000 votes than Trump. The midterm elections should be interesting and when he is tested his temperament will be watched closely.


Will Michelle take it up for the next election cycle given her posturing in this last one? even as the above GQ photo of the first lady presumptive floats around. This is the image of dignity that should obtain in the Oval office?

I have to concur with former JLP spokesman (although he is antigay) that Trump is going to become the very thing he has demonised; as the reality hits him, trade deals he wants to change will be problematic and so on he will have to adjust. He cannot have his cake and eat it too.

More anon

Peace & tolerance

H

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