‘Article 50’ the actual instrument that must go into effect is effectively limited to two years is yet to be acted on, Theresa Mays says she wants to do so by March 2017 but in the same breath the UK cannot re-enact its membership with the World Trade Organization, WTO unilaterally and requires the consent of 163 countries for that to happen and the business of quotas are problematic or negotiations of said deals, the recently concluded 7 year negotiated deal with the EU and Canada seems to be seen as a template for getting out of this; with the UK a more services driven economy than for goods the WTO re-negotiations may be challenging, the politics trumps the economics some say. The UK is not a direct member of the EU and is involved by way of the EU and risk the exiting of the EU without those deals cemented as the timing is too short some say. There is no known schedule of commitments by the EU in the WTO in other words there is no active independent membership some BREXITiers say use the EU membership terms but the issue with that is
‘No problem’ says BREXITiers as the UK can fall back on the default international trading rules by the WTO but the EU sells more to the UK than vice versa so the EU has more to lose. But what about business interests, where the power realities lie and lobbyists?
The EU MEPs in the meantime seem to be in a hurry to oust the UK and get on with the business of the union, while the French and British are still at odds with border controls more so than ever now as illegal migrants pass through, some going to great extremes such as literally walking the length of the underground tunnel from France to the UK or risking life and limb via way of hiding in lorries and using force for truck drivers to take them to the border. Despite a well thought through and implemented SCHENGEN visa system in the 27 states in the EU in terms of freedom of movement of legal persons and asylum seekers who can also move across borders for temporary jobs for example refugees and illegal migrant want to go to the UK more so than Germany, France, Sweden and even Holland.
Will the UK indeed England or Britain depending on who in that old arrangement decide to leave by way of their own referenda in Scotland, Ireland and the Falklands become even more insular in terms of asylum number allocation? The near 300% rise in the paper application fees and other fees for approaching the court/Home Office seem to suggest the pathways are being slowly closing or shrunken to make it even more difficult for applicants.
It is The change in law pushed by the Home Office as well in terms of landlords in the UK can find themselves in serious trouble if they do not verify or notify the authorities of illegal immigrants has sent said immigrants deeper into the underground, indeed deportations are on the rise as a recent public matter brought to bear. LGBT Jamaicans who have been in hiding in the UK and the EU to a certain extent and who cannot justify the affidavits they present are also a part of the mix and are being deported, three persons of note were sent back recently.
Britain maybe seen as undermining the push for solutions to the borders issues, the Eurozone crisis and terrorism and I do not think there will some olive branch to the UK to re enter the EU as the EU now constituted may want to do all it can to stop others from leaving , Turkey’s recent re-enactment of the death penalty and a subsequent warning by Angela Merkel of membership of the EU the response from Turkey was it will take no talk from the EU.
The rapid rise of right wing sometimes extremists groups and political outfits who have formalised themselves is of concern, namely in Germany, France (the opposition to the Jungle tent camps) and of all places Holland that was once thought to be the bastion of true equality and an open arms policy on LGBT asylum seeking and relocation opportunities. Donald Trump’s “BREXIT times ten” on the campaign trail among other things he has spewed seems to have emboldened said fanatical right wingers, the bizarre case that got me thinking was the anti African descented push by a group in Holland with surprising support and with so many Jamaicans already there I am concerned. A recent report of a clash outside a club with Jamaicans and persons making racist remarks and declaring blacks should return to the countries has made this issue a live on. Such anti African and racist sentiments are also on the rise in the UK and what appears to be the Home Office’s hardened positioning on the cases before it; given their history of disbelief of homophobic violence and asylum applications it may become difficult for some with even legitimate claims in their affidavits. One infamous case comes to mind from the early 2000s where the judge literally told the applicant he was not ‘camp’ enough to be gay and that he was lying, a deception by the way used by some (sometimes encouraged allegedly by dishonest solicitors) to act ‘camp’ with everything from aesthetic changes to boot while in holding camps to overdone effeminacy so that witnesses can say he displays stereotypes.
Germany’s more accommodative approach to refugees overall to the tune of one million has not gone down well with these racist and anti immigration groups and a recent poll has made the present administration targets of protests, sustained advocacy and violence with verbal abuse of non whites. Germany has a aging populations issue similar to Singapore and immigrants are given some leeway to take up jobs to meet those demands, alongside the natives’ resistance to taking those low paying jobs.
Another video shot in Holland recently (this one came before - Rowdy behaviou by Jamaican gay men in Amsterdam) that appeared on social media of supposed bad behaving Jamaicans and similar ones have also not helped the situation by virtue of the comments made in Dutch suggests ostracism and indeed racism as well with the sub text being persons got an opportunity and they abuse it and bring their bad behaviour to their shores; while not assimilating as it were to their (Dutch) cultural norms. Alleged lotto scammers operating there seems to be also popping up more and more as well and I fear can lead to deep mistrust issues impacting those with legitimate cases. On the other hand Jamaicans there on a whole seem to be doing well given their respective social posts and their use of Dutch with is a part of the conditions for residency.
As we wait to see the rapidly changing times unfold more Jamaicans are going through some challenging episodes. The pesent state of affairs unde Obama saw more deportations up to 20,000 Jamaicans deported from the United States ; then what is to come under Trump if he wins?
Peace & tolerance